A Dual-Mode Competitive Risk Framework for Electronic Devices Using the Fréchet-Chen Model

Abstract

Electronic devices (EDs) exhibit complex failure patterns throughout their lifetime, with failure modes (FaM) can be monotonic, non-monotonic, or a combination of both. This complexity is increased by using advanced semiconductors and flexible electronics, which introduce variability in degradation mechanisms. Although multiple reliability models exist, many lack flexibility or practical applicability in this context. This work proposes a novel competing risk (CR) model that combines the Fréchet and Chen distributions, called Fréchet-Chen Competitive Risk (FCCR). This model allows for modeling the minimum time to failure between two relevant FaMs. Its key mathematical properties and applicability to real-life scenarios are analyzed. Parameter estimation is performed using maximum likelihood (MLE) and Bayesian inference (BEM) using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), which provides a robust basis for analysis. Two case studies with real-life ED data validate the model, demonstrating its superior fit and predictive capability compared to classical models. Furthermore, the effect of FCCR parameters on system behavior is explored, highlighting its usefulness in accurately modeling complex failure patterns in EDs.