Structural Dependence in the Twenty-First Century: A Shift-Share Analysis of Employment in Ciudad Juárez

Abstract

Motivated by recent global disruptions, this study examines the evolution of the municipality of Juárez, Chihuahua in terms of how much it has a dependent economy, given its ties to North America production networks. The paper tests whether structuralist and dependence theories continue to explain the city’s economic dynamics. Using employment data from Juárez, México, United States and Canada for the period 2003-2018, the study apply the dynamic variant of shift-share technique to separate the sources of changes in Juárez employment into continental—for North America, sectoral, and merely local components. Results show that local dynamics have increasingly contributed to the growth of employment, especially in the sector of manufacturing, the economic linchpin of the region. Juárez, However, remain trapped in low value activities according to the results. The findings suggest that although Juárez is still dependent on central economies has developed capabilities to grow by itself un the twenty-first century.