A generalized Poisson model to predict host-seeking female Aedes aegypti marked by dusted Metarhizium anisopliae-exposed males

Abstract

We developed a biological control method directed toward Aedes aegypti using the release of Metarhizium anisopliae-contaminated males to spread the fungus to wild females. A generalized Poisson model was used to relate Ae. aegypti marked females (MKF) to M. anisopliae-exposed males (FEM). In a mark-recapture parallel arm trial, FEM release was a better predictor than unexposed male (UM) releases to forecast MKF by FEM. Total females (TF), marked males (MKM), and wild males (WM) as predictors were counted in human-landings in 15 households treated with 40 FEM each, vs 40 UM released/ household/week in 15 households for eight weeks. Fit of MKF to standard, generalized Poisson (GP), and negative binomial models/arm built by TF, MKM, WM, and interactions as predictors were computed. In both arms, MKF was better modeled by GP, which in treated, all but one of the eight observed data fell within the confidence intervals predicted by the model. However, the control GP had two outliers and MKM as a single predictor. Likewise, the pseudo-R2 measures of 95% and 46% for treated and control groups also showed that the GP with FEM was more suitable to predict MKF. It should thus be possible to use the GP model to indirectly estimate that an increase of one TF or one fungus-exposed male would increase the number of markedfemales by 8% or 9%, respectively, while wild males were an irrelevant predictor to the model.